Week 12 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 12 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 12 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.Boise State at San Jose State – 7:00 pm ET
I thought hard about taking San Jose State in this game. But the more I looked into it, the better I felt about there being a ton of points scored. These just aren’t good defensive teams. While the Broncos are looking to find a way into the College Football Playoff, they’re just 50th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.025). Meanwhile, the Spartans are 105th in EPA per play allowed (-0.075), and they’re absolutely terrible in the secondary.It’ll be interesting to see how many points Boise State puts up against San Jose State here. But I have a feeling it’ll be a lot. The Spartans are much better at defending the run than the pass, but there’s really no such thing as stopping Ashton Jeanty. Last year, Jeanty rushed for 167 yards against San Jose State, and the Boise State running game has only improved since then. So, even though the Spartans might be decent against the run, I’d be shocked if Jeanty doesn’t run wild here. But we could also see a big game out of quarterback Maddux Madsen, who does have three games with at least three passing touchdowns this year. His arm should terrorize a miserable group of San Jose State defensive backs.
The Spartans should also have no problems putting up points here. The Broncos are beatable in the secondary, so quarterback Walker Eget and star wideout Nick Nash should connect for a few big plays. Nash had six catches for 161 yards and a touchdown last week. And while this Boise State team has been beating opponents down, the group has also gone Over in six of its nine games. And that’s not solely because of the work of the Broncos offense.
This game has shootout written all over it.
Bet: Over 61.5 (-108)
RELATED: Here’s an updated look at the Heisman Trophy betting markets!
Kansas at BYU – 10:15 pm ET
This spread opened with BYU -7, but it’s all the way down at -2.5 and -3 now. I understand the concerns heading into the week. Kansas is coming off a 45-36 win over Iowa State, and the Jayhawks have now won two of their last three and covered in three straight. Kansas has also scored at least 42 points in two of its last three games, looking a lot more like the Lance Leipold teams we’re used to. Meanwhile, BYU nearly lost on the road against Utah, coming back from a double-digit deficit to win 22-21 as a 3-point favorite. However, that performance shouldn’t be enough to scare people off BYU. That was a big-time rivalry game, and it was more or less Utah’s Super Bowl. But the Cougars were able to pull it out, even with the Utes offense looking competent for the first time in weeks. We’re now getting good prices on BYU, and I’m actually drinking the juice and taking the Cougars on the moneyline.I know people don’t like paying a price like -135, but that’s an implied probability of just 57.45% that BYU wins the game. That’s very, very low for a team that is Top 30 in EPA per play and Top 15 in EPA per play allowed. The Cougars are very good on both sides of the ball, which is why they’re 9-0 and currently looking at a spot in the College Football Playoff. They’re also playing at home in this one, and Provo is a very difficult place to win. Considering all of that, combined with the fact that Kansas is just 2-6 on the year, this price shouldn’t scare anyone off. This price should be pounced on.
Of course, the fact that dual-threat quarterback Jalon Daniels is absolutely cooking again is scary. Against the Cyclones, Daniels threw for 295 yards with two touchdowns and no picks, and he also rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown. He has now rushed for a touchdown in four consecutive games, and he has also thrown for eight touchdowns and only one pick over the last four games. Still, I can’t help but trust the Cougars defense in this matchup. If anybody is equipped to slow down this scorching hot Kansas offense, it’s BYU. The Cougars are 16th in the nation in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.076) and eighth in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.117). They’re capable of stopping very good running and passing teams. Sure, constantly having a spy on a good running quarterback is different. But I’d be a little surprised if BYU can’t figure it out here — even if that means keying in on Daniels as a runner and trusting the secondary to cover one on one.
The flip side of all of that is that Kansas needs to be able to stop BYU. And are we sure the Jayhawks can do that? Kansas is just 59th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.016). And even with the team playing better lately, the Jayhawks have allowed 65 points over the last two weeks. That said, Jake Retzlaff and Co. should be able to move the ball consistently in this one. And running back LJ Martin should be able to punish Kansas between the tackles. He has rushed for at least 6.0 yards per carry in each of the last three games.
The Jayhawks are also just 1-6 SU as road underdogs under Leipold. Meanwhile, the Cougars are 31-6 SU as home favorites under Kalani Sitake.
Bet: BYU ML (-135 – 2 units)
